Strange Rumblings in the Levant...

The day that Saddam Hussein's statue in Fidros Square was pulled down, a CNN crew interviewed a young man in Syria. The man, contrary to some hand-wringing expectations that the "Arab Street" would explode, pointed out that "we too have many statues here." And, indeed, Syria does have many statues, mostly of the late Hafez al-Asad. Statues, paintings, photographs and all the various iconography typical of the Arab world litters the beauty of Syria.

Syria is a country that has been rocketed into the news in the last few days with the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in downtown Beirut. The buzz has moved away from the killing and what it means for Lebanon to what the US response to Syria will be. This is partly a sideshow, and indicative of the parochial nature of western media, and also a measure of how everything revolves around the United States.

The reason Syria is the country the media is zeroing in on is because of their decades-long role as the main power-broker in Lebanon. During the ruinous, brutal Lebanese civil war, in which the beautiful Mediterranean city of Beirut became synonymous with hell, Syria invaded under the pretext of helping out their allies and bringing stability to Lebanon (which, ironically, is basically the same rational Israel used for doing the same, with basically the same degree of cynicism). Since then, Israel has pulled out, leaving only a small and controversial piece of land in their power. Syria, despite a UN resolution last year ordering their withdrawal, has stayed behind.

This is beginning to chafe the Lebanese, who want to create their own government free from the rule of their relatively muscular neighbor to the north. Syria, which profits immensely from their status of occupier, is reluctant to leave. They would lose both money and prestige. This position has never sat well with the international community, particularly since the withdrawal (or retreat, depending on who is doing the spinning) of Israel nearly five years ago.

But it is only now that pressure is really beginning to heat up. The common guess is that Syria was indeed behind the assassination, both in the international community- where no one actually states it explicitly- and in Lebanon itself, where they are not so subtle.

(Granted, not everyone thinks it is Syria: the kind of obscure Islamic militant groups consisting entirely of losers in some basement who take credit for things like the 2003 Northeast blackout have claimed this as their own- in this case the previously unknown "Victory and Jihad in Greater Syria". There have been grumblings from the opposite corner as well, as Iranian media and the speaker of the Yemeni Parliament, the decrepit and corrupt Sheik al-Ahmar, have pointed their wearying fingers at Israel. Not a bad guess, if perhaps Hariri were not such a pragmatic moderate. But then there are those who think that Israel welcomes chaos in the
Middle East, whereas in reality they prefer a numb acceptance of their power.)

There is of course no direct proof at this point that smoking-guns its way to Syria. But Syria had the means and the motivation, as Hariri was by all accounts set to join the opposition and call for Syrian withdrawal. His clout and popularity, as well as his relations with the outside world, would have made the pressure on the Syrian government almost irresistible. With one fell swoop, with one shock of destruction that converted the beautifully rebuilt downtown Beirut into a smoldering morgue, Syria could have re-established its power and reputation for absolute ruthlessness.

This is a reputation that has been in a bit of a decline lately. After the death of old man Asad in 2000, his son Bashar was bull-rushed into power by a manipulation of Parliament and typical strong-armed military tactics. A bit about Bashar is important here. He was never groomed to take over the role of his father. That was left for the medallion-bedecked, uniform-wearing Basil, father's chosen one. Basil was the man who for years Syrians (and by extension Lebanese) were told would rule their lives one day. Basil, sadly, had a penchant for speeding and drove his car off a road. His speed was fatal, and now he only exists on posters around Syria- many of which have the holy trinity of Hafez, Bashar and Basil.

Bashar was an ophthalmologist in London. Western-educated, nothing to do with the family business. Think Michael Corrleone. Actually, this is a very apt analogy, and I am sure it has been made elsewhere. When the family crisis hit, he rushed back and began to be groomed. In a few years, though, he seemed to promise, the family would be totally legitimate. He even funded a computer society, in a country where ATMs were banned because Hafez was terrified of anything that could connect unfiltered to the outside world, something this writer found out the hard way.

I was in Syria shortly before the old man died, and there was some optimism about Bashar. I was most impressed by his techno-side. But the realities of Syrian politics came to the forefront, and after a brief Damascus spring he began to crack down on dissidents and reformists, and the thaw refroze. His low moment was perhaps when he used a papal visit to promote Christian/Muslim brotherhood, as they are both opposed to the Jews. This did not make the Pope happy, as one can imagine, and put the final nail in the coffin of Bashar al-Asad, reformer.

The assassination of Rafik Hariri falls into this pattern. Syria had to show its muscle again and not let things get out of control. They had to show that no one was going to be able to pull down any statues. This may be provoking the rage of the US, but Lee Smith argues in Slate that Syria is calling Bush's bluff. This was a good international example of the mafia nature of Syrian politics. This nature was on its fiercest display in 1982, when the Muslim Brotherhood of the beautiful town of Hama rose up against the Hafez. The dictator sent in his tanks and leveled huge sections of the town, killing at least 20,000 and leaving only the sounds of fear and acquiescence to compete with the creaking of the ancient waterwheels turning slowly in the river Orontes. Today, Hama has more posters and items of fawning iconography than anywhere else in Asad-choked Syria.

The Beirut bombing is an extension of these policies, and there is very little the administration can do about it, with its overtaxed military and fear of losing the Arab world forever. Syria is a dictatorship, yes, with an abhorrent human rights record. And regardless of whether or not they killed Hariri, their record in Lebanon is one of oppression, cruelty, violence and criminal profiteering. It is important for this administration to turn up the heat on the UN to pressure Syria to withdraw. That loss of face alone could shake the regime with the same effectiveness as the strategically backward and morally bankrupt idea of invasion, or even air strikes.

Make no mistake- the collapse of the regime, if it is replaced with even a semi-decent and functioning government, would be a huge blessing for Syria, a country laden with history, where one can see some of the more wondrous examples of archeology from all eras. One historical site, Baalbek, has ruins from several different epochs, and is an incredible way to spend an afternoon wending your way through the temples and pillars of this antique trading post, with its Roman and pre-Roman beliefs soaked into the sand-red stones. The Dead Cities in the north are a harrowing reminder of the fragility of human endeavors. And the castles in Syria- Crusader and otherwise- are wonderful beyond description. It would be wonderful if Syria could be known for these instead of a violent and torturing government.

But it is known for its statues. In the port city of Latakia, Hafez al-Asad's birthplace, there is a towering statue of the old don. He has his arms outstretched in a half-hug and has a weird, scary smile on his face. It is supposed to be inviting- he is the father of his country, welcoming his children with open arms- but the result is a mixture of Frankenstein and John Wayne Gacy. Disconcerting, no? It would be a cathartic pleasure to see it pulled down, but that can't be done with US bombs. It has to come from Syria. This is a great test of the doctrine George Bush outlined in his inaugural speech. Will the US help democratic reformers? Or will they ape the regime they despise by believing that only a show of force will do any good? One has to hope, for the sake of Syria and of the US, they will choose the former.